Last week saw a barrage of Nintendo NX rumours. Much of it was intriguing and the rest was, well, likely folly pouring from the mouths of hungry fans and supposed insiders. Nintendo has been awfully quiet about announcing any concrete news, and in the year that they undoubtedly have to break the silence with a storm, we eagerly pick at any crumb of news that falls our way–even the rumours. But what can be learned from the recent whispers in the halls? Is it all just typical fanboy excitement, or is there some truth to it all?
As much as I am a longtime fan of Nintendo, I’d like to cut through all the reverberating voices and explain which parts of the rumours matter, which don’t, and what it all means for Nintendo in 2016 and beyond.
Let’s begin with the prepared financial analysis provided by David Gibson, the head of Research at Macquarie Capital Securities. The report includes information regarding the NX’s compatibility with other devices, separation into two pieces of hardware, and launch date and price. The compatibility options, one of them being the PlayStation 4, is what is causing quite a stir amongst gamers. The report includes information that indicates that Nintendo’s next generation of hardware will somehow operate with the PS4 in some capacity. This is simply not true.
While Macquarie’s report presents some interesting conjecture about Nintendo’s future plans, that is all it is–just conjecture. The purpose of the report is to summarize Nintendo’s financials and make a potential case for choosing to invest in the corporation. The section that deals with the NX’s compatibility clearly states that “it’s possible the NX works with PS4 or PC’s which would be a major change for Nintendo and be a positive.” Notice how the sentence is phrased; it is a thought, not a fact. And clearly the analyst is not claiming that to have a complete and comprehensive grasp of Nintendo’s intentions.
Moreover, the report states that “patent filings” were the basis for the belief that the NX might be compatible with smartphones, PCs, and the PS4. To weigh in on this matter myself, the NX will most certainly include cross-platform functionality with mobile devices and PCs–Nintendo themselves admitted to that months ago. The My Nintendo membership program announced by Nintendo President Tatsumi Kimishima will allow players to access things like friends lists and loyalty accounts across Nintendo hardware and mobile devices. Even more, a service called Nintendo Account will enable game data to be saved via the cloud and accessed on, you guessed it, smartphones, Nintendo devices, and PCs. Not much of a rumour here, so let’s move on.
The next bit of information from Macquarie’s report presents interesting information regarding the release of the NX. It suggests that the NX is a platform comprised of two pieces of hardware, one a handheld device and the other a home console. In past rumours, it was said that the NX would be a console-handheld hybrid of sorts, similar to the Wii U and its GamePad–the difference being that the handheld for the NX can work without being in the vicinity of the home console. The fact that this report suggests two separate devices, one releasing in November and the other in 2017, catches my attention.
Nintendo has done something similar in the past when marketing the Game Boy Advance, the GameCube, and the Nintendo DS. They called it the “three pillar strategy.” Previous and current consoles included some connectivity between Nintendo’s home consoles and handheld devices. For example, the Wii could send game demos to a Nintendo DS. Today, Super Smash Bros. Wii U can be controlled using a Nintendo 3DS. These abilities give us a glimmer–a foreshadowing of sorts–of Nintendo’s future. These rudimentary symbiotic relationships may evolve to far more advanced and interesting ways the NX will pair with its handheld counterpart.
The separation of the two devices also creates an environment where one could argue that the abilities of the handheld are no longer tied to the console release. Before, it was possible to think of the NX handheld as being a component of or an addition to complement the home console. Now, if we believe there is some truth to Macquarie’s research, the handheld device is to stand on its own as a full-fledged gaming device. At the suggested $200 price point, the NX handheld is no longer a must-have with the console; it is a stand-alone product. I like this scenario better than a console-handheld bundle. The amount of tech in the box would likely cost several hundreds of dollars, and to try to keep costs at a minimum, certain aspects of the console or handheld would have to be held back.
This concept also allows for diverse handheld and console opportunities. Certain games just play better on handhelds, while more complex and highly technical games are best experienced on consoles. Both devices can be viable purchases on their own, but when combined, provide useful functions and a well-rounded experience of the NX platform.
Though the suggestion that the handheld will release separately from the console is a topic that I could indulge in for hours, it is worth noting that the release schedule of each device is at odds with what piece of hardware actually requires an immediate successor. The sales of the 3DS are nowhere near that of the original DS, but they are certainly strong when considering the harsh reality that Apple has forged in the mobile gaming space. The Wii U on the other hand has been failing for years, so it would be in Nintendo’s best interest to launch the NX home console as soon as possible–at least sooner than the handheld.
Whether or not the console offering of the NX releases first, the second source of rumours, a leaked survey from Nintendo’s client GFK, keeps us busy with a bunch of interesting hardware specs and abilities. Like the rumours coming from Macquarie Capital Services, we can merely speculate on the information presented. In this case, much of the information is far less concrete because it comes via a survey. At the very least, the last source was from a head analyst speculating based on past Nintendo patents and industry trends. GFK, which provides market and consumer information, simply leaked a survey that was perhaps intended to be a litmus test to gauge interest and confirm how certain parties would receive NX hardware specifications. Nonetheless, let’s explore some of the questions and details offered by the survey, in case they partially reflect where Nintendo is headed with the NX.
One portion of the survey defines terms like optical disc drive, backwards compatibility, and subscription gaming services. What can we glean from this? First of all, a definitions sections such as this one suggests that the folks participating in the survey are likely non-gamers. Maybe the survey is targeted at potential investors. Gaming audiences would already know what said definitions mean, and probably wouldn’t require much, if any, clarification.
The second takeaway is that these definitions don’t necessarily confirm Nintendo’s plans. Just because the survey alludes to a subscription service like Netflix that would allows gamers to pay a fee to access games from a defined library of titles, doesn’t mean that such a feature will actually be included. But it is interesting to investigate a little.
The mention of an optical disc drive is a perfect example of the survey pointing towards potential final features included with the NX hardware–or, in this case, their exclusion. Past patents have pointed towards a disc-less piece of hardware. This seems to agree with a later section of the survey that tabulates the NX console’s supposed technical specifications. The optical disc drive is clearly identified as not being included with the console. Even more, a subscription-based gaming service would confirm that Nintendo is confident in a digital distribution future.
Don’t be fooled–much of the tabulated information seems unreasonable. The side-by-side comparison of specifications between the Wii U console, the NX, and the PS4 includes many inconsistencies, several of them obvious. For example, the Wii U specs claim that the console is only backwards compatible by means of digital downloads, however the Wii U does play disc-based Wii games. Further, the table speaks of a subscription service required to play Wii U games online, when no such fee exists.
So what does this all mean? It means that while much of the information from the survey could highlight potential features of the NX console or handheld, it may also be completely missing the mark. After all, we don’t know who actually issued the survey; it may have been a third-party rather than Nintendo themselves.
Though it is fun to imagine a scenario where Nintendo does include some kind of achievement system to the NX family, and equally fun to bash Nintendo for releasing a device only capable of outputting games at 900p, we have to realize that we only have a sparse selection of confirmed information when discussing the NX. Nintendo needs to silence all this conjecture, and the best means to do it is to hold a Nintendo Direct very soon. If the NX, or a component of it, is to be released in 2016, I hope Nintendo are prepared to clarify this mess before the end of the first quarter. For the time being, we can continue to imagine what their next hardware contributions will offer. You can sleep well knowing that Nintendo’s NX will work with the PS4, wont’t be compatible with an external hard drive, will play cartridge-based games, and hopefully print money.