The basics of proper betting are based on value. Only until you have mastered and thoroughly comprehended the theory of value you will be able to engage in profitable sports betting. There are only two types of bets with a positive mathematical expectation that are certain to yield a profit from a distance when betting – arbitrage and value betting. Arbitrage will be discussed in future materials, but for now, value betting. It is an essential topic for those who want to bet effectively.
The essence of value betting.
Value betting can be understood as “value” finding. The meaning of this concept is that each gamble has its own value, which can be positive or negative. The value betting approach is based on making worthwhile bets and avoiding bets with negative value.
The concept of value is inextricably linked to the concept of mathematical expectation, which can be positive or negative. The bet has a value if the expectation is positive. If not, this alternative should be discarded because it will not be profitable.
Let’s look at a simple example of mathematical expectation:
Assume you do a coin toss and win twice as much every time you get “heads”. Tossing a coin ten times can result in any number of heads falling – five, eight, three, or even zero. It is entirely up to chance whether you win in such a short period of time, and there is no way to predict whether you will win or lose at the game.
However, mathematics can provide a solution to that question. To do so, we must compute the mathematical expectation of such a game. The probability of heads and tails falling out is obviously the same, and it is 50% with infinite repetition. How do you figure out what the expected value is?
(Probability of winning multiplied by net profit) – (Probability of losing x amount of net loss)
If you stake 100$ and win 200$ for each falling eagle (a net profit of 100$), the formula is as follows:
(50 % x 100) − (50 % x 100) = 0
It is instantly evident that the expectation in this game is zero, and betting on it makes no sense because the distribution will definitely be around 50% after more than 1000 rounds. That was self-evident. But what if you’re offered x2.2 instead of x2, or 220$, for winning a bet?
(50 % x 120) – (50 % x 100) = +10
The course of action has shifted, and you now have a positive math expectation of 10$. This means that every time an eagle falls out, you are certain to make 10 bucks. That implies it’s in your best interest to use this method as much as possible because you’re practically guaranteed a long-distance triumph.
Another example: suppose the bet is 100$ and the payment is x2, but the coin has a flaw and the eagle only appears 47 percent of the time. The alignment shifts once more:
(47 percent x 100) – (53% x 100) = -6
This is an illustration of a negative mathematical expectation. The number (-6) indicates that for each win, you will lose 6 bucks until your money is depleted.
What if the players who offered you a wager decide to take a fee as a bookmaker and give you the eagle x1.9 winnings? That’s 190$ for the same 100$ stake.
(50% х 90) – (50% х 100) = -5
Another example of a negative math expectation is keeping your distance as a guaranteed minus. That is why the books are always profitable.
Confirm the computations that were removed:
You wager 1,000,000$ after flipping a coin 10,000 times. You made 5000×1.9×100 bets and made 950000$. So you lost 50,000$ in total. Even if you are fortunate and the profit distribution works in your favor, for example, if the eagle falls 5050 times, you will receive 959,500$, which will not cover the commissions. This generates revenue for all bookies and casinos around the world.
As a result, all casino games such as roulette, games of chance such as more or less the same markets in sports betting, are all losing strategies from the start. It is fairly simple to calculate and comprehend their expectations, unless you are using freebet opportunities to capture a sure plus EV bets.